New Zealand Student Visa Refusal Rates by Nationality
Immigration New Zealand's FY2025/26 student visa decisions show refusal rates of 36% for Bangladesh, 24% for Pakistan, 21% for India, 18% for Nepal and 3.4% for China. These are historical figures for whole cohorts of applications. They are not odds for any individual, and no one can convert them into one.
Quick Facts
| Highest published refusal rate | Bangladesh — 36% |
| Lowest of the major markets | China — 3.4% |
| Largest source country | China, with 23,302 student visas approved in FY2025/26 |
| Second largest | India, with 15,592 approvals |
| Steepest riser | Bangladesh — approvals up 150% to 2,317 |
| Longer processing flagged for | India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan |
| What the figures are | Historical INZ decision data for a financial year |
| What they are not | A prediction about any individual application |
| Figures checked | 20 August 2026 |
The published rates
| Nationality | Student visa refusal rate, FY2025/26 | Student visas approved, FY2025/26 |
|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 36% | 2,317 (up 150%) |
| Pakistan | 24% | 881 |
| India | 21% | 15,592 |
| Nepal | 18% | 3,208 |
| China | 3.4% | 23,302 |
Read the two columns together. China has both the largest approval volume in New Zealand's student system and the lowest refusal rate of the major markets. Bangladesh has the highest refusal rate and one of the fastest-growing volumes at the same time. Those facts sit together comfortably; a growing market and a high refusal rate are not a contradiction.
These are decision statistics for a financial year. They tell you what happened to a large number of applications. They do not tell you what will happen to one.
The sentence this page exists to prevent
A great deal of published content converts these numbers into personal odds — "as an Indian student you have a 79% chance". That is wrong twice over.
It is statistically wrong, because a cohort rate is not an individual probability. The applications behind a 21% figure are not interchangeable; they differ by provider, level, funding, documentation and history.
It is also the wrong kind of statement for anyone to make about you. Assessing an individual's prospects against immigration criteria is regulated advice in New Zealand under the Immigration Advisers Licensing Act 2007, and the offence carries up to $100,000 and seven years' imprisonment. A site that quotes your odds is not being helpful; it is doing something New Zealand licenses people to do.
What the numbers are genuinely useful for is planning: they tell you which cohorts INZ scrutinises more heavily, and therefore where documentation and timing deserve more of your attention.
Volume, growth and scrutiny
New Zealand's student system is growing quickly, and the growth is concentrated in exactly the markets with the higher refusal rates.
- Nepal's tertiary enrolments went from 595 to 2,425 in two years.
- Sri Lanka's went from 905 in 2023 to 3,075 in 2025.
- Bangladesh's student approvals rose 150% to 2,317, with work visas up 47% alongside.
- India approved 15,592 student visas, second only to China.
Set that against the wider picture. Work-visa arrivals into New Zealand are down 56% since 2023, while student arrivals are down only 1%. Students now make up 26.6% of non-New Zealand migrant arrivals, up from 15.5%. The government targets 105,000 international enrolments by 2027 and 119,000 by 2034.
A system growing that fast in specific markets attracts more verification in those markets. That is the mechanism behind both the refusal spread and the processing spread.
The processing warning that goes with it
INZ explicitly names India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan as facing longer student visa processing times.
That is the same list, and it is not a coincidence. Verification work — checking documents, funds, providers and histories with third parties — costs time before it produces a decision either way. INZ states it has limited control over how long third-party checks take.
The practical consequence is timing. INZ advises applying at least three months ahead, and names peaks between October and March and between May and August. For applicants from the flagged countries, three months is a floor. See when to apply.
What actually drives the difference
The refusal spread is not a ranking of applicants. Several structural factors sit behind it, and they are worth naming because they are the parts an application can address.
Requirement complexity by market. Some markets involve more third-party verification of documents, more variation in provider quality at the sending end, and more use of intermediaries between the student and the provider.
Provider mix. Applications to universities, polytechnics, private training establishments and schools do not behave the same way. Provider type changes processing time, and it changes what happens after study under the Post Study Work Visa rules. Markets with different provider mixes produce different outcome mixes.
Genuine intention. This is the requirement most refusals turn on, and it is the one assessed as a judgement rather than against a documentary threshold. See the genuine intention test.
Documentation. Missing police certificates, untranslated documents, and funds evidence with unexplained sources are ordinary, avoidable problems that arise more often where applicants are relying on intermediaries.
Agent quality. A market with many unregulated intermediaries produces applications of very uneven quality. That is a fact about the market, not about the students in it.
Reading a refusal rate honestly
Three cautions.
A rate is a snapshot. FY2025/26 is one financial year. Rates move with policy, volume and cohort composition.
A rate is not a rule. No requirement changes by nationality. The funds figure, the insurance requirement, the health threshold and the genuine intention test are identical for a student from Dhaka and a student from Shanghai.
A low rate is not a guarantee and a high rate is not a verdict. China's 3.4% still means applications are declined. Bangladesh's 36% still means most applications are approved.
Where refusals go next
A declined temporary visa has no right of appeal to a tribunal. The internal route is reconsideration, which costs NZ$220 and is available only in specific circumstances, with a short deadline running from when you received the decision. The alternative is a fresh application.
Fees and levies are not refunded on a decline, and the IVL is never refunded. Full detail is on student visa declined, what now, and the country-specific refusal patterns are covered in refusals from India and Nepal and refusals from Bangladesh.
Where to confirm this
- INZ statistics: immigration.govt.nz research and statistics
- Our cross-visa table: visa approval and refusal rates
- Student visa wait times: immigration.govt.nz student visa wait times
This page reports published statistics. It is general information, not immigration advice, and nothing here estimates the prospects of any individual application.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New Zealand student visa refusal rate for India?
21% in FY2025/26, against 15,592 approvals. That is a historical figure for the whole cohort of Indian student visa decisions in that financial year, not a probability for an individual application.
Which nationality has the highest New Zealand student visa refusal rate?
Of the major markets, Bangladesh at 36% in FY2025/26, followed by Pakistan at 24%, India at 21% and Nepal at 18%. China's rate was 3.4%.
Why is China's student visa refusal rate so much lower?
China is New Zealand's largest student source country, with 23,302 approvals in FY2025/26, and its applications sit in a long-established market with settled provider relationships and mandatory identity forms. The requirements themselves are identical for every nationality.
Does my nationality change the student visa requirements?
No. The offer of place, funds, health, character, insurance and genuine intention requirements are the same for everyone. What differs by market is the volume of applications, the amount of third-party verification and, consequently, the processing time.
Do these figures tell me my chances of approval?
No. They are cohort-level historical statistics. Converting them into an individual probability is not statistically valid, and assessing an individual's prospects against immigration criteria is regulated advice in New Zealand.
Why does INZ warn about longer processing for certain countries?
INZ names India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan as facing longer student visa processing. The driver is verification workload and third-party checks, which INZ states it has limited control over.
Are New Zealand student visas getting harder to obtain?
The published requirements have not been tightened for students in the way work visas have. Volume has risen — 2026 demand is running about 20% higher year on year — against a government target of 105,000 enrolments by 2027, and rising volume in specific markets is what shows up as longer processing.
