New Zealand Visa Approval and Refusal Rates by Nationality
New Zealand visitor visa refusal rates in 2025/26 ranged from 0.5% for South African citizens to 88% for Nigerian citizens. Pakistan sat at 75%, Bangladesh 38%, India 16% and Fiji 12%. Student visa refusals ran from 3.4% for China to 36% for Bangladesh. These are aggregate outcomes for a nationality, not a prediction about any individual application.
Quick Facts
| Data period | INZ decisions, financial year 2025/26 |
| Highest visitor refusal rate | Nigeria, 88% |
| Lowest visitor refusal rate | South Africa, 0.5% |
| Highest student refusal rate | Bangladesh, 36% |
| Lowest student refusal rate | China, 3.4% |
| Largest visitor visa market | China, 251,676 approvals |
| Largest work visa market | India, 32,451 approvals |
| Largest residence market | India, 8,994 approvals |
| What these figures are not | A prediction, an eligibility test, or a score for an individual case |
What a refusal rate is, and what it is not
A refusal rate is the share of decided applications from a nationality that were declined in a period. It describes a population. It says nothing about any particular application, and it is not a probability that applies to you.
It is not a rule. INZ does not apply a nationality quota or a target refusal rate. Every application is decided against the published requirements for that visa: identity, health, character, funds, genuine intention, and the specific criteria of the category.
It is not stable. These figures are for the 2025/26 financial year. They move with application volumes, with the mix of first-time and repeat applicants, and with policy.
It cannot be reverse-engineered into advice. A high aggregate refusal rate does not tell you which requirement caused the declines, and we do not speculate. What INZ publishes about why applications are declined is set out in common reasons NZ visa applications are declined.
Visitor visa refusal rates, 2025/26
| Nationality | Refusal rate |
|---|---|
| Nigeria | 88% |
| Pakistan | 75% |
| Bangladesh | 38% |
| Russia | 21% |
| Tonga | 18% |
| Samoa | 18% |
| India | 16% |
| Fiji | 12% |
| Indonesia | 4.6% |
| South Africa | 0.5% |
The spread is extraordinary — a factor of more than 170 between the top and the bottom of that table.
Nigeria and Pakistan are the two outliers. Nigerian citizens received 386 visitor visa approvals against 2,734 declines. Pakistani citizens received 2,403 approvals against 7,233 declines. In both cases more applications were declined than approved, which is true of no other significant nationality.
South Africa's 0.5% is the other end of the same scale. South African citizens need a visa to visit New Zealand — they are not on the visa-waiver list — and almost every application succeeds.
For nationality-specific detail see NZ visitor visa refusals: Nigeria, NZ visitor visa refusals: Pakistan and NZ visa refusal rates by nationality.
Student visa refusal rates, 2025/26
| Nationality | Refusal rate |
|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 36% |
| Pakistan | 24% |
| India | 21% |
| Nepal | 18% |
| China | 3.4% |
China is both the largest student market and the one with the lowest refusal rate by a wide margin — 23,302 approvals at 3.4%. Bangladesh is at the other end at 36%, while simultaneously being the fastest-growing student market in the data, up 150% year on year to 2,317 approvals.
Those two facts together describe the shape of the demand: the fastest-growing markets are also the highest-refusal ones, which is why refusal-recovery information is so heavily searched from South Asia. See student visa refusal rates by nationality.
Approval volumes, which are a different story
Refusal rates and approval volumes are frequently confused. They measure different things and rank nationalities differently.
| Nationality | Visitor | Student | Work | Residence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 251,676 | 23,302 | 20,198 | 6,411 |
| India | 97,824 | 15,592 | 32,451 | 8,994 |
| Philippines | 34,638 | 6,214 | 24,769 | 6,059 |
| Fiji | 24,754 | 2,406 | 6,512 | 2,278 |
| Indonesia | 20,566 | — | 2,057 | — |
| Thailand | 17,585 | — | 2,451 | — |
| Tonga | 15,101 | — | 2,545 | — |
| South Africa | 13,555 | — | 3,194 | 3,153 |
| Samoa | 11,349 | — | 5,064 | 1,440 |
| Russia | 9,767 | — | — | 322 |
| Vanuatu | — | — | 6,816 | — |
| Sri Lanka | — | 5,445 | 6,975 | 1,957 |
| Nepal | — | 3,208 | 3,614 | — |
| Bangladesh | — | 2,317 | 1,927 | — |
| Pakistan | 2,403 | 881 | — | — |
| Nigeria | 386 | — | — | — |
China is the largest visitor market by a factor of 2.6 over the next nationality. India leads both work and residence approvals. The Philippines is second on work at 24,769, up 32% year on year.
Vanuatu's 6,816 work approvals are almost entirely Recognised Seasonal Employer placements — the country supplies about 38.5% of that scheme. Volume in one category tells you nothing about the others.
The statistic that distorts every ranking
Visa-waiver nationalities barely appear in these numbers at all, because their citizens do not apply for visitor visas. They travel on an NZeTA.
The United Kingdom is the clearest illustration: 1,191 UK visitor visas in 2025/26, against 8.3 million NZeTAs issued since 2019. On visitor visa counts alone, the UK would look like a marginal market. In reality England is New Zealand's single largest census birthplace at 208,428 people.
Any ranking of "which nationalities visit New Zealand" built from visitor visa approvals is therefore wrong for all 60 visa-waiver countries and territories. See visa waiver countries and territories.
Residence refusal rates in the Pacific
Two Pacific nationalities recorded high residence refusal rates in the same period, and they sit awkwardly beside the fact that both have dedicated New Zealand residence categories.
| Nationality | Residence refusal rate | Residence approvals |
|---|---|---|
| Kiribati | 48% | 106 |
| Samoa | 45% | 1,440 |
Kiribati's residence approvals also fell 66% year on year, off an already small base. Both countries have their own ballot-based residence routes — the Pacific Access Category for Kiribati and the Samoan Quota for Samoa — with fixed annual places rather than open eligibility. Samoa's quota was set at 1,100 places in 2026, reduced from 1,650.
Small numbers make these rates volatile. A change of a few dozen decisions moves a percentage built on 106 approvals a long way, which is why the Pacific figures should be read as indicative rather than as a trend.
The one near-universal approval rate
Not every New Zealand travel authorisation carries a meaningful refusal risk, and one published figure shows what a low-friction process looks like.
Under the NZeTA-from-Australia trial that began on 3 November 2025 — covering Chinese citizens and twelve Pacific Islands Forum countries travelling to New Zealand directly from Australia — INZ recorded 112,013 requests to 31 July 2026: 111,747 approved and 178 refused. That is a refusal rate of roughly 0.16%.
The contrast with the visitor visa table above is the entire point. The same Chinese nationals who face a full visitor visa assessment through the ordinary route clear this one at almost 100%, because the trial route qualifies them by their existing Australian visa rather than by an individual assessment. Structure drives outcomes far more than nationality does. See the NZeTA from Australia trial.
What INZ does not publish
Three gaps are worth knowing about, because content that appears to fill them is inventing figures.
Accredited Employer Work Visa approvals by nationality by year. INZ publishes AEWV approvals only as a cumulative figure since 2022. India leads at 50,190 cumulative and the Philippines follows at 47,530. Annual per-nationality AEWV data is not published, so any site presenting a yearly AEWV table by country is not using INZ data.
Refusal reasons by nationality. INZ publishes decision counts, not a breakdown of grounds. Nobody can tell you which requirement drives a nationality's refusal rate from published data.
Approval rates for most residence categories by nationality. Coverage is partial. Where a figure appears in this article it is because it was published; where it does not, it was not.
Reading the numbers honestly
Two structural points explain most of what looks strange in the tables above.
Demand for information is not the same as approval volume. Pakistan and Nigeria produce small approval numbers and enormous volumes of search. Their applicants face a genuinely complex, high-friction process, so each application generates far more research than a straightforward one does. Low approvals do not mean low interest.
High-volume markets can have low refusal rates and vice versa. China combines the largest visitor market with a low student refusal rate. Bangladesh combines the fastest student growth with the highest student refusal rate. There is no simple relationship between size and outcome.
If your own application was declined, the published rate for your nationality is not a diagnosis. What matters is the reason INZ gave you in writing, and what options that leaves open. See visa application declined: what next. Where the situation needs judgement, a licensed immigration adviser or a New Zealand lawyer is the right place to take it — see how to find a licensed immigration adviser.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New Zealand visa refusal rate?
There is no single national figure. It varies enormously by nationality and visa type. Visitor visa refusal rates in 2025/26 ran from 0.5% for South African citizens to 88% for Nigerian citizens; student refusals ran from 3.4% for China to 36% for Bangladesh.
Which nationality has the highest New Zealand visa refusal rate?
Nigeria, at 88% for visitor visas in 2025/26 — 386 approvals against 2,734 declines. Pakistan was second at 75%, with 2,403 approvals against 7,233 declines.
What is the New Zealand visa refusal rate for Indian citizens?
16% for visitor visas and 21% for student visas in 2025/26. India was simultaneously the largest source of approved work visas at 32,451 and of approved residence at 8,994.
Does a high refusal rate for my country mean my application will be refused?
No. A refusal rate describes what happened across a whole population of applications in a period. It is not a probability applied to an individual case, and INZ decides each application against the published requirements for that visa.
Does INZ have a quota or target for refusals?
No published quota or target by nationality exists. The rates in this article are outcomes, not settings.
Why do UK and US citizens barely appear in the statistics?
Because they do not need visitor visas. Both are visa-waiver countries whose citizens travel on an NZeTA, so they appear in NZeTA figures rather than visa approvals. The UK recorded 1,191 visitor visas against 8.3 million NZeTAs issued since 2019.
Where can I find AEWV approvals by nationality?
INZ publishes them only as a cumulative total since 2022 — India at 50,190 and the Philippines at 47,530 — not as an annual series by nationality. Any site showing a yearly per-country AEWV table is not using INZ data.
What is the student visa refusal rate for Bangladesh?
36% in 2025/26, the highest of the major student markets. Bangladesh was also the fastest-growing, with approvals up 150% year on year to 2,317.
Primary source: Immigration New Zealand visa decision statistics for the 2025/26 financial year, with population and migration context from Stats NZ. Compiled and verified 20 August 2026. Figures are aggregate decision outcomes for a nationality in one period and are not a guide to any individual application.
This page is general information about published statistics. It is not immigration advice, does not assess your circumstances, and does not predict the outcome of any application.
